Election Festivities in the Coming Recession

Is this recession or election time? It is indeed both. The irony is that the current recession has imparted strong feelings of uncertainty for all of us. The General Elections on the other hand has two faces; it’s first face is similar to the atmosphere presented by the repression, as it also contains an element of uncertainty for the fate of this country for the next five years, which will be determined by a newly-elected administration and parliament. The second face of this year’s elections, at the same time, promises to be a festive to politicians, media and the general public, both for small businesses and for common Indonesians.

For a brief period, the election euphoria in the US that attracted the global attention because of the remarkable victory of Barack Obama, who used to live in Jakarta in 70’s, inspired politicians here in preparing themselves for the legislative election in April ‘09 and Presidential and Vice Presidential election in July ‘09. We have seen for the last couple of months a blizzard of posters covering the main streets and landmark places across the country, imitating the campaign words or slogans used by Obama’s campaign team.  They make us smile as none of these contenders actually have the track record, unique background, intelligence, and nation-wide or even global support that provided the foundation for Obama’s campaign of Hope and Change. Of course it bears noting that the changes still needed in Indonesia cannot be compared to the sea-change that was absolutely needed by the US to regain its position on the global stage.

In any case, this is a very interesting time for observers and politicians, and even perhaps small enterprises and street traders. One economist observes that every five years, when the general election is held, a sudden and temporary economic growth pours a huge amount of money to small enterprises that make t-shirts, posters, and election accessories for political parties and the candidates. The media and polling firms also get majority share of the action. Street traders get their shares from public campaigns. Everyone becomes a political analyst, making comments and predictions on who will be the next President and Vice President, and even members of the new cabinet. People easily forget that there has been a big shift in governance in the last decade, so that that no matter how prestigious the position of the President in our Presidential system, major decisions have always involved the parliament, constitutionally required or not. Major decision that have not been consulted with Parliament would face a threat of being questioned, and investigated, the results of which could have been used in discussions about impeaching the President. It is no wonder that any President who enjoys no support from political parties, that in turn hold at least a simple majority in the parliament, will have no option other than to dance with other political parties for compromises.

Despite of the fear that recession in the US, Europe, and Japan will affect   Indonesia soon, some observers believe that a full-blown recession will take some time before impacting Indonesia. The economic growth is predicted to dive to a conservative 4%, inflation is within the flat line of under double digits, but the lay-offs of workers have not started haunting the middle class like they did in the late 90’s. The media reports that lay-offs so far have terminated employment of over 200,000 jobs. With the prevailing country’s rating, the Government is still able to issue government Samurai Bonds earlier this year to finance government-sponsored projects, which has raised the Indonesian reserves to a not-traditionally high level of US$ 51 billion. This is all despite bad news projecting that prices of oil, coal, other minerals and exported agriculture commodities are becoming very low compared to sky rocketing prices before the crisis.

The economic team of the Government under the shining Sri Mulyani Indrawati is perceived to be able to manage the coming recession. They are perceived to have learned it from the economic crisis of the late nineties. Although contested by the parliament, by way of rejecting an emergency government regulation (Perpu or government regulation issued in lieu of law that has to be approved as a law by the parliament in the next hearing after issuance), we observe that the government is in a defensive mode already to deal with the coming crisis.

So timing-wise, the crisis cannot come to us at a worse time. The President, Vice President, Ministers and high-ranked public officials from various different political parties have already started to campaign, while big decisions are expected from them to deal with the crisis.

With the new rules on elections, which were corrected recently by the Constitutional Court, members of parliament will not be elected from the candidates who are prioritized by the political parties, but simply by the number of votes they receive from the direct election systems. This new rule requires the candidates to be known by their constituents. Candidates who live in Jakarta now have to reach out to their voters in Papua, North Maluku, Central Kalimantan, West Timor and other far-flung regions to convince the voters to vote for them. The candidate may have never visited the places, and the voters may have never heard or known the candidate. The programs offered by the candidate may not involve the best interests of the people. Thus this is going to be very expensive process, and most likely will not be an effective campaigning platform for the candidates. Candidates who will benefit from the new systems are the politicians who are well known by the people in the electorates, or who have taken the risk of pouring money and other benefits (building school building, village health clinic, or providing basic foods to villagers), although they may not really be wanted by their own political parties. The concern from the business sector, reformists, pro democracy activists and the public in general is that the kind of parliament that will replace the existing parliament (that is being perceived as corrupt, ineffective, very political in its legislative duties, fails in practicing the checks and balances, and does not represent the best interests of its constituents), will not be a better parliament – in particular if the filtering system adopted by the political parties fail to position their best people to be elected. Direct elections and majority votes are essential for democracy in a developed country like in Switzerland. But perhaps this methodology does not suit our political climate. Representation of the best people, guarded by strong and effective legal systems and law enforcement, involving public participation, may still be the best approach for our young democracy.

We have been observing quite a number of candidates campaigning for the presidency and vice presidency. The mapping of political parties and the minimum threshold of 20% to support a candidacy would result in a number of combinations of coalition government. There is no guarantee for the incumbent SBY that he will be able to run again, as there is no guarantee that his small party, Partai Demokrat, will be able to get the minimum threshold without a coalition with another party or parties that would be able to garner considerable votes. President – Vice President Teams, internally (if tentatively) supported by their own parties:  Partai Demokrat – Golkar; Partai Demokrat – PKS – PPP; Partai Golkar – PDIP; PDIP – PKS, Partai Golkar – PKS and others are being discussed. Sadly, observers cannot ignore the feeling that it’s all about politics and power grabs, not about rebuilding our country, saving it from crisis, or protecting the best interests of the Indonesian people at large. From the plethora of power combinations, we may be able to get the incumbent duo of SBY – Jusuf Kalla again, or alternatively SBY – Sultan Yogya, Jusuf Kalla – Sultan Yogya, SBY – Hidayat Nurwahid, Jusuf Kalla – Hidayat Nurwahid, Megawati – Sultan Yogya, Megawati – Jusuf Kalla, Megawati – Hidayat Nurwahid, Megawati – Prabowo, Sultan Yogya – Prabowo, Jusuf Kalla – Sultan Yogya, or even surprising black horses, for example SBY – Sri Mulyani.

The concern from the business sector, reformists and democracy activists on the above combinations basically echoes their same concern about the new Parliament. The new government, if elected from the above alternatives, would not guarantee acceleration of reform efforts, clean government, and a zero-corruption society. We simply want political stability for business, and especially in anticipation of the coming crisis. We want a clean government so that economic costs of doing business could be reduced to a minimum amount. We want audit, accounting and oversight systems on activities in financial sectors of the government and business to be made transparent and accountable to the highest standards. We want to have a clean and effective police force, as well as reforms in our prosecution, judiciary and other legal sectors so that legal certainty and justice could be upheld.

We need a new administration and parliament that could guarantee such simple goals. If such goals are provided, we do not have any objection to the five-year festivities in celebrating democracy. What is important, after all, is the substance of democracy, not the show.